Playoff referees assigned: Scott Foster gets Celtics-Heat Game 1LINE MOVEPHI/IND opens as pick-em — rare in 4-5 matchupSteve Kerr: "Steph will play 36+ minutes tonight — no restrictions"Knicks announce Playoff starting lineup: Brunson, Hart, OG, Randle, RobinsonLINE MOVEBOS/MIA line shifts: Celtics -6.5 now -5 after Butler upgradeINJURYLuka Doncic (knee) ruled OUT for Game 1 vs ThunderINJURYGiannis Antetokounmpo (back) probable — will play in Game 1LINE MOVEDEN/LAL total drops from 224.5 to 221 — sharp action on underPlayoff referees assigned: Scott Foster gets Celtics-Heat Game 1LINE MOVEPHI/IND opens as pick-em — rare in 4-5 matchupSteve Kerr: "Steph will play 36+ minutes tonight — no restrictions"Knicks announce Playoff starting lineup: Brunson, Hart, OG, Randle, RobinsonLINE MOVEBOS/MIA line shifts: Celtics -6.5 now -5 after Butler upgradeINJURYLuka Doncic (knee) ruled OUT for Game 1 vs ThunderINJURYGiannis Antetokounmpo (back) probable — will play in Game 1LINE MOVEDEN/LAL total drops from 224.5 to 221 — sharp action on under
Friday, April 10, 2026

Playoffs Tip Off: Luka OUT, Butler IN, and the Line Move That Matters

Game 1s across the board tonight. The biggest news: Luka is out vs OKC and Butler is back for Miami. Plus the sharp money signal you need to know about before tipoff.

90 sec read
Injury
Luka Doncic (knee) officially OUT for Game 1 vs Thunder. DAL line jumped from +4.5 to +7. Kyrie Irving projected at 38% usage rate — his playoff ceiling as the #1 option is a question mark. OKC should roll.
Injury
Kawhi Leonard OUT for the entire first round. Clippers are +8 against Denver. This series was already lopsided — now it's a sweep watch. Harden and PG need to play the series of their lives.
Line Move
BOS/MIA shifted from -6.5 to -5 after Butler upgrade to probable. Sharp money flooding in on Miami — 68% of handle on MIA despite 71% of tickets on Boston. Classic sharp-vs-public divergence.
Line Move
DEN/LAL total crashed from 224.5 to 221. Sharp money hammering the under. Both teams bottom-10 in pace over final 15 games. Playoff pace historically drops 3-4 possessions per game in round 1.
Injury
Ja Morant (shoulder) questionable vs Wolves. If he sits, MEM line moves from +3 to +5.5. Game-time decision — monitor 30 minutes before tip.
Best Bet
Miami Heat +5 (-110) vs Boston. Butler's return reshapes this series. BOS 4-6 ATS as 5+ point home favorites in playoffs under Mazzulla. Sharp money agrees. Our model has this at MIA +3.8 fair value — that's +3.1% EV on the current line.
Today's Best Bet
Miami Heat +5 -110
BOS vs MIA — 7:00 PM ET
+3.10% EV →