Playoff referees assigned: Scott Foster gets Celtics-Heat Game 1LINE MOVEPHI/IND opens as pick-em — rare in 4-5 matchupSteve Kerr: "Steph will play 36+ minutes tonight — no restrictions"Knicks announce Playoff starting lineup: Brunson, Hart, OG, Randle, RobinsonLINE MOVEBOS/MIA line shifts: Celtics -6.5 now -5 after Butler upgradeINJURYLuka Doncic (knee) ruled OUT for Game 1 vs ThunderINJURYGiannis Antetokounmpo (back) probable — will play in Game 1LINE MOVEDEN/LAL total drops from 224.5 to 221 — sharp action on underPlayoff referees assigned: Scott Foster gets Celtics-Heat Game 1LINE MOVEPHI/IND opens as pick-em — rare in 4-5 matchupSteve Kerr: "Steph will play 36+ minutes tonight — no restrictions"Knicks announce Playoff starting lineup: Brunson, Hart, OG, Randle, RobinsonLINE MOVEBOS/MIA line shifts: Celtics -6.5 now -5 after Butler upgradeINJURYLuka Doncic (knee) ruled OUT for Game 1 vs ThunderINJURYGiannis Antetokounmpo (back) probable — will play in Game 1LINE MOVEDEN/LAL total drops from 224.5 to 221 — sharp action on under

Best Bet of the Day

One pick. Highest EV. Transparent reasoning. No fluff.

Recent Record 5-2
Apr 9 GSW +2.5 -110 LOSS
Apr 8 CLE -3 -110 WIN
Apr 7 PHX ML +130 WIN
Apr 6 DEN/MIN U 218.5 -110 WIN
Apr 5 MIL +3 -110 LOSS
Apr 4 NYK ML -145 WIN
Apr 3 OKC -4.5 -110 WIN
Friday, April 10, 2026 — Best Bet
Miami Heat +5
BOS vs MIA • 7:00 PM ET
Expected Value
+3.10%
Odds
-110
Confidence
High
Why This Pick
Jimmy Butler's return changes everything for Miami. He's a different player in the playoffs — career 22.9 PPG in postseason vs 20.1 regular season. Boston has been dominant at home but their ATS record as big favorites under Mazzulla is concerning. Our no-vig fair odds calculation has this game at MIA +3.8, making the current +5 line a clear value play.
Historical Context
Boston is 4-6 ATS as 5+ point home playoff favorites under Joe Mazzulla. Miami is 7-3 ATS as playoff underdogs of 4-6 points since 2023. Butler-led Heat teams are 12-5 ATS in Game 1s.
Sharp Money Signal
68% of money on Miami despite 71% of tickets on Boston. Classic sharp-public split. Line moved from -6.5 to -5, confirming sharp sentiment. Scott Foster assigned as referee — road teams 14-6 ATS in his last 20 playoff games.